The Climate Is What It Is Expected to Be

Public debate increasingly frames climate change as an existential crisis. Repeated warnings, dramatic headlines, and worst-case projections shape public perception. Over time, constant messaging can create a sense of inevitability — that the planet is nearing collapse.

Yet climate has always changed.

September 4, 2026 | Franch Hagerup | Science | No Comments

Split illustration showing Earth divided between extreme heat and freezing cold, symbolizing the debate between climate crisis and natural climate variability, with CO₂ references and atmospheric dynamics in the background.

Climate Crisis or Climate Variability?

Earth has experienced climate shifts for billions of years. Historical records show periods of extreme heat and cold long before modern industry.

Local extremes — unusually hot summers or severe winters — are not new phenomena. The argument presented here is that climate variation is natural, cyclical, and complex. From this perspective, today’s changes should be viewed within a broader historical context.

Atmospheric Rivers

One process often discussed in meteorology is the phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers. These are long, narrow corridors of concentrated water vapor in the atmosphere, typically associated with cyclonic systems.

They can stretch thousands of kilometers and transport vast quantities of moisture toward higher latitudes. When these systems meet mountains or land, air masses are forced upward, leading to condensation and heavy precipitation lasting several days.

Atmospheric rivers play a major role in the global water cycle. Their presence can cause intense rainfall; their absence can lead to drought.

Natural Climate Drivers

Climate is influenced by numerous interacting factors, including:

Solar cycles (approximately 11-year variations)
Ocean circulation systems
Atmospheric circulation patterns
Topography and mountain ranges
Vegetation and evaporation
Dust transport (e.g., from the Sahara)
Orbital variations and gravitational influences

The sun remains the primary energy source driving the climate system.

From a skeptical viewpoint, natural variability is seen as the dominant force shaping weather and long-term climate patterns.

The Role of CO₂

Mainstream climate science identifies rising greenhouse gas concentrations, including CO₂, as a significant driver of modern warming trends. However, critics argue that CO₂ variations are small relative to the scale of natural processes and question the proportional weight assigned to this factor.

This disagreement forms the core of the climate debate: how much is human-driven versus how much reflects natural cycles?

Conclusion

Climate is not static. It is dynamic, multi-layered, and shaped by complex interactions between atmosphere, oceans, solar activity, and geological forces.

Whether one views current changes as crisis or variability depends largely on how these interacting systems are interpreted.

Open discussion and scientific scrutiny remain essential.

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