Climate Is Exactly What We Should Expect

CO₂ levels in Norway have remained relatively stable since systematic climate measurements became mandatory. Yet many people feel they are constantly told that the Earth is heading toward a climate catastrophe. When such warnings are repeated often enough, it is hardly surprising that many begin to believe the planet is approaching some kind of final phase.

Throughout billions of years, Earth has experienced major climate variations. Temperature and weather patterns have shifted dramatically even within recorded history. In 1950, temperatures above 50°C were reportedly measured in Gran municipality in Norway. In 1979, the same area experienced temperatures close to –50°C. These events illustrate how periods of extreme heat and extreme cold can occur naturally over time.

When people repeatedly hear that a crisis is imminent, the message can eventually become accepted as truth. The question is therefore whether current developments represent a true climate crisis, or whether they largely reflect natural variations in Earth’s climate system.

Climate Change Without a Climate Crisis

One explanation often overlooked in public debate is the phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers.

Atmospheric rivers are large flows of water vapor moving through the atmosphere. They typically form when cyclones are active and transport enormous amounts of moisture from the tropics toward the poles. These systems can stretch thousands of kilometers in length and several hundred kilometers in width. In some cases, the amount of water they carry can rival the flow of the Amazon River at its mouth. At any given time, several such atmospheric rivers may exist somewhere on Earth.

High above us, these “rivers” play a major role in the global water cycle. They contribute to evaporation, cloud formation, and precipitation that can last for eight to twelve days. For land ecosystems and vegetation, they represent one of the most important sources of water. When these systems fail to reach certain regions, drought can occur.

In Norway, much rainfall occurs when moist air masses move rapidly—sometimes approaching speeds of 500 km/h—and are forced upward as they meet mountains and landmasses. As the air rises, the moisture condenses and forms intense precipitation.

Atmospheric rivers may account for as much as 90 percent of extreme rainfall events in some regions. If storm tracks across the North Atlantic shift in the future, Norway could experience more frequent or more intense atmospheric river events.

Natural Processes in the Atmosphere

The formation of atmospheric rivers begins with evaporation in tropical regions. Water vapor is then transported across vast distances by global wind systems before condensing and falling as rain or snow.

This phenomenon has existed as long as Earth has had oceans and an atmosphere. Major mountain ranges—particularly those exceeding 5000 meters in elevation—play an important role in shaping wind systems and precipitation patterns around the globe.

Several additional natural factors also influence weather and climate. Solar activity follows an approximately eleven‑year cycle, which can affect the amount of energy reaching Earth. Vegetation contributes as well. A single large tree can release hundreds of liters of water vapor into the atmosphere each day.

Dust from the Sahara Desert can stimulate cloud condensation, and gravitational interactions involving the Moon can influence tides and ocean circulation. Ultimately, the Sun remains the dominant energy source driving Earth’s climate system.

A Critique of the CO₂ Explanation

From this perspective, it can be questioned whether current weather developments should primarily be attributed to carbon dioxide alone. The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere changes in very small increments, measured in parts per million.

Large precipitation events and extreme weather can often be linked to atmospheric rivers and other natural processes within the atmosphere and oceans. When these systems are absent, extended dry periods can occur.

The debate therefore continues: to what extent should CO₂ be considered the main driver of climate change, and how much influence should be attributed to natural climatic processes?

For some observers, the situation resembles the classic story of the emperor with no clothes—where a widely accepted narrative may deserve closer examination.